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It’s all about the holiday hype this week, which I’m sure you’re aware is the biggest week in all of retail. We’ve got a collection of studies front in center for you to take a look at, but, to be completely honest, you only need to know one thing – it’s looking to be another great holiday season for online sales. Each study has its own growth estimate, and some predict different days with the highest growth and revenue, but it’s all positive.
eMarketer’s Remarkable Estimations
Holiday predictions for research firm eMarketer are slightly more cautious this year compared to 2014, claiming that ecommerce sales growth will drop to 13.9% compared to the 14.4% last year, but online’s cut of total retail sales is expected to pop up to 9% this season as opposed to last year’s 8.3%. They’re also betting that mobile will play a significant role, doubling in growth this year by nearly a third. Needless to say, where multichannel merchants are getting their sales is something to pay attention to, and the firm has its eyes on social sales from Twitter, Facebook, and Pinterest this year as well.
The NRF’s Effective Predictions
Considering recent successful retail months in 2015, the National Retail Federation’s holiday forecast announced an increase in sales of 3.7% across the board. Holiday sales are expected to take up nearly a fifth of the year’s total retail sales, and online sales specifically are expected to jump by 6-8%. Their forecasts are founded on the modest pace of job creation and income growth this year, as well as the somewhat-up consumer confidence in recent months. Typical factors like price, value, and timing will be critical in how and why people shop this year, and a strong end to the year is expected.
Deloitte’s Delightful Forecasts
Deloitte’s holiday estimations are pretty much in the same boat as the NRF; they expect an overall boost of 3.5 – 4% for holiday retail sales, with all non-traditional channels, like online, social, or POS, jumping between 8.5 and 9%. Interestingly, they state that online sales aren’t just a standalone channel for retailers – online and mobile engagement are increasingly triggering in-store sales, which illustrates multichannel’s importance during the selling season. Also, as a side note, they point out that lower gas prices will help fuel sales this season since it obviously means more disposable income in consumers’ pockets.
Adobe’s Ace in the Hole
Adobe placed their bets with online holiday sales this year, calculating an 11% year-over-year growth – the highest of all the studies thus far. They’re also throwing support behind Thanksgiving, saying it will be the day this week with the most growth (thanks to mobile), which makes sense considering it’s held that title for two years straight so far. Also, Adobe’s got the feeling that many shoppers will purchase many of the same gifts they usually do, with 76% of holiday sales based on only one percent of product SKUs. Now more than ever, it’s important that you get those return customers living up their adjective.